Kyle Madson
April 2, 2024 5:00 am PT
It’s impossible to predict with 100 percent accuracy how the NFL draft will go. There are plenty of analysts with information to give a general idea of how some things might shake out, but overall most mock drafts will be out the window at some point in the first five or six picks.
It gets even more difficult to predict how things will go the later we go in the draft. USC quarterback Caleb Williams is all but certain to be the first player off the board. By the time we get to the 49ers at No. 31 though there’s a massive question mark about what direction they’ll go. Perhaps they trade up. Perhaps they trade back. Perhaps they stand pat and take the best player on their board and throw positional value or need out the window.
While we can’t predict with 100 percent accuracy who the 49ers will pick, we can take some educated guesses at which position they’ll select. Here’s a run through each position and the chances the 49ers select that spot in the first round:
Quarterback
Jan 1, 2024; Glendale, AZ, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix (10) celebrates against the Liberty Flames during the 2024 Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
We’ll never say never, but this feels as close to never as we can get.
Chance of selection: .01%
Running back
AUSTIN, TEXAS – OCTOBER 28: Jonathon Brooks #24 of the Texas Longhorns breaks a tackle attempt by Siale Esera #54 of the Brigham Young Cougars in the second half at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on October 28, 2023 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
This one fits with QB. Granted, there’s a strong likelihood the best RB in the class is available when the 49ers are on the clock, it’s nigh impossible to envision them using a precious first-round pick on such a not-needed spot.
Chance of selection: .01%
Fullback
SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 08: Kyle Juszczyk #44 of the San Francisco 49ers runs the ball during the first half against the Arizona Cardinals at Levi’s Stadium on January 08, 2023 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
You know what? Throw the first thing we said about a QB pick out the window.
Chance of selection: 0.0% (shouts to Dean Wormer)
Wide receiver
MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 30: Ladd McConkey #84 of the Georgia Bulldogs scores a touchdown past Conrad Hussey #12 of the Florida State Seminoles in the second quarter during the Capital One Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium on December 30, 2023 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
Right now the odds of this feel low. It’s not out of the question that a player like Ladd McConkey really strikes Kyle Shanahan’s fancy, but it seems semi-unlikely given their other needs heading into the draft.
Chance of selection: 4%
Tight end
Nov 11, 2023; Athens, Georgia, USA; Georgia Bulldogs tight end Brock Bowers (19) runs after a catch against the Mississippi Rebels in the second quarter at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
It could be argued that tight end is enough of a need that the 49ers would take on in Round 1. However, the first-round depth in this year’s class is not great. Once Georgia TE Brock Bowers is off the board there’s probably not another TE worth snagging in Round 1.
Chance of selection: 1.8%
Interior offensive line
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – OCTOBER 14: Jackson Powers-Johnson #58 of the Oregon Ducks prepares for a snap against the Washington Huskies at Husky Stadium on October 14, 2023 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
There’s a healthy debate to be had about positional value on the interior and whether the 49ers would utilize a first-day pick on that spot. It’s not out of the question that San Francisco identifies a tackle prospect they’d like to move inside. There’s also a chance Oregon center Jackson Powers-Johnson slips to No. 31 (or within range of a trade up for the 49ers) and solves a long-term question in the middle of the offensive line. It’s a definite area the team could use an upgrade, but it doesn’t seem like a big enough priority that they’d make it a first-round pick.
Chance of selection: 9.2%
Offensive tackle
Nov 25, 2023; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats offensive lineman Jordan Morgan (77) against the Arizona State Sun Devils during the Territorial Cup at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
There’s not a more glaring need than this for the 49ers. They could not only use an upgrade at the starting right tackle spot, but they’ll also need to start laying out a contingency plan for the post-Trent Williams era. Perhaps there’s just not a prospect accessible for the 49ers that they’re comfortable investing in in Round 1. That feels like the only realistic scenario where they’re not picking an offensive tackle though.
Chance of selection: 53.74%
Defensive tackle
Oct 21, 2023; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini defensive tackle Jer’Zhan Newton (4) tackles Wisconsin Badgers running back Braelon Allen (0) during the first half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Given the 49ers’ prioritization of their defensive line it’s not crazy to buy a scenario where they fall in love with a DT prospect who slips down the board and lands in San Francisco’s lap. At that point they might play the ‘best player available’ card and shore up their defensive interior. There are two big-time interior prospects in this year’s class though and it doesn’t appear either will dip deep into the first round.
Chance of selection: 10.6%
Defensive end
Penn State defensive end Chop Robinson (44) celebrates after sacking Massachusetts quarterback Taisun Phommachanh in the first half of a NCAA football game Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023, in State College, Pa. The Nittany Lions won, 63-0. Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK
Everything we just said about defensive tackle can be applied to defensive end with a little higher chance of happening due to the uptick in positional value on the edge.
Chance of selection: 12.6%
Linebacker
Everything we just said about defensive end can be applied to linebacker with a little lower chance of happening due to the downturn in positional value in the second level.
Chance of selection: 4.3%
Cornerback
CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – DECEMBER 03: Nate Wiggins #20 of the Clemson Tigers runs for a touchdown after intercepting a North Carolina Tar Heels pass in the third quarter during the ACC Championship game at Bank of America Stadium on December 03, 2022 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Eakin Howard/Getty Images)
This is a definite area the 49ers could afford to improve, but the fact remains the earliest pick they’ve used on a cornerback since 2017 was when they took Ahkello Witherspoon with the No. 66 selection in the 2017 draft. To go from that to suddenly firing on the position in Round 1 doesn’t feel like a realistic jump.
Chance of selection: 1.9%
Safety
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – AUGUST 31: Tyler Nubin #27 of the Minnesota Golden Gophers celebrates his interception against the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the first half at Huntington Bank Stadium on August 31, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)
This is another intriguing position that we can’t rule out entirely. The 49ers have never selected a safety this early, but given how top heavy the draft is on offense there may be a really good safety prospect landing at the end of the first round. If the team isn’t anticipating paying Talanoa Hufanga after his rookie contract is up at the end of this season they may opt to look for his replacement early in this year’s draft. It would need to be a really sensational prospect to find their way into the 49ers’ first-round plans.
Chance of selection: 2.83999%
Kicker
Darren Yamash*ta-USA TODAY Sports
After last year we can’t rule it out completely.
Chance of selection: 0.00001%
